NEWSLETTER

Before I get to the business of the newsletter, I would like to highlight a major firm achievement – Blue Bell Private Wealth Management surpassed $1 Billion in clients’ assets under management. Managing over $1 Billion in assets is not only time-consuming but a tremendous responsibility. We truly appreciate your continued trust and support. Many thanks to our partners, advisors, and administrative assistant team for our continued substantial growth.    

In our latest Quarterly Insights, we revisit Wall Street’s bold 2025 S&P 500 predictions—many projecting double-digit gains despite recent market dips. What’s driving the volatility? Uncertainty around tariffs and broader macro risks. We also share why timing the market rarely works, and why our disciplined, four-pronged investment approach continues to serve clients well. Plus, don’t miss the strategy podcast from our team and a look ahead to Blue Bell PWM’s 20-year anniversary.

As we reflect on the remarkable performance of the S&P 500 in 2024, which saw a return exceeding 20% for the second consecutive year, we are reminded once again of the market’s unpredictability and resilience. It is the first time since 1997 and 1998 that the S&P 500 has produced back-to-back annual gains of over 20%. This exceptional performance far exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts from major financial institutions, many of which had predicted modest gains or even declines. 

The markets were volatile again this past quarter due to political turmoil and mixed economic reports, which created uncertainty. However, solid earnings growth and the 0.5% interest rate cut kept the market climbing. The ongoing debate revolves around the possibility of a soft economic landing versus concerns about a potential recession. While anxiety has increased, the markets finished the quarter with solid returns across most sectors. 

The Federal Reserve Board, made up of seven members from various professional backgrounds, appointed by the president may have been the subject of the most economic scrutiny of any group during the first half of this year. Only time will tell if their analysis is accurate. Don’t forget, it was not long ago that this group declared inflation to just be transitory.

Reflecting on my journey of over 50 years in the investment business, I am as passionate today about guiding others through the complexities of the financial world as I was when I began.

After much deliberation, I am beginning our year-end newsletter, with this quote attributed to Mark Twain. “If you don’t read the newspaper, you’re uninformed; if you read the newspaper you’re misinformed” His words resonate strongly in the context of stock market investing.

I recently attended my wife’s high school class reunion, reconnecting with people I hadn’t seen in years and meeting some new faces as well. Conversations turned to our careers at this gathering. I left a couple of folks surprised when I shared that I was still actively pursuing my career as a financial advisor and delved into more details about my work. Two people asked, “You still love it with all of what’s going on?” One gentleman had been a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), and he was amazed that I still loved the business. I certainly understand his initial reaction; all one needs to do is turn on the TV or pick up a newspaper, and the term ‘recession’ hits you in the face.

Predicting short-term movements in the stock market is a highly challenging task. Historically, it is rare to come across a short-term investor who consistently outperforms the market over the long run. Surprisingly, the stock market has experienced an exceptional first half of the year, defying the expectations of both pessimistic investors and market skeptics.

Dear Clients, In early February, I was out to dinner with a former high-ranking Federal Reserve employee. I asked the question, “What is your assessment of how the Federal Reserve is doing?”

I chose this subject “It’s Not Different This Time” as I am celebrating 50 years as an investment advisor. I thought it would be helpful to share with you many of the experiences I have learned from over the past 50 years. Naturally, I have seen my fair share of ups and downs during this period.

Global markets declined again in the third quarter as inflation remained near multidecade highs, geopolitical tensions escalated further, and the Federal Reserve continued to aggressively hike interest rates signaling future rate increases will be larger than previously expected.