NEWSLETTER

I recently attended my wife’s high school class reunion, reconnecting with people I hadn’t seen in years and meeting some new faces as well. Conversations turned to our careers at this gathering. I left a couple of folks surprised when I shared that I was still actively pursuing my career as a financial advisor and delved into more details about my work. Two people asked, “You still love it with all of what’s going on?” One gentleman had been a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), and he was amazed that I still loved the business. I certainly understand his initial reaction; all one needs to do is turn on the TV or pick up a newspaper, and the term ‘recession’ hits you in the face.

Predicting short-term movements in the stock market is a highly challenging task. Historically, it is rare to come across a short-term investor who consistently outperforms the market over the long run. Surprisingly, the stock market has experienced an exceptional first half of the year, defying the expectations of both pessimistic investors and market skeptics.

Dear Clients, In early February, I was out to dinner with a former high-ranking Federal Reserve employee. I asked the question, “What is your assessment of how the Federal Reserve is doing?”

I chose this subject “It’s Not Different This Time” as I am celebrating 50 years as an investment advisor. I thought it would be helpful to share with you many of the experiences I have learned from over the past 50 years. Naturally, I have seen my fair share of ups and downs during this period.

Global markets declined again in the third quarter as inflation remained near multidecade highs, geopolitical tensions escalated further, and the Federal Reserve continued to aggressively hike interest rates signaling future rate increases will be larger than previously expected.

The S&P 500 continued to decline in the second quarter, hitting the lowest level since December 2020 as still-high inflation, sharp increases in interest rates, rising recession risks, and ongoing geopolitical unrest pressured stocks and other assets.

After a historically calm 2021, volatility returned in the first quarter of 2022, as inflation surged to 40-year highs, the Federal Reserve promised to raise interest rates faster than previously thought, and Russia surprised the world with a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, marking the first major military conflict in Europe in decades. Those factors fueled a rise in volatility and pushed stocks lower in the first three months of the year.