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Every year, the top strategists from Wall Street’s biggest banks make their predictions for the S&P 500. We like to compile these predictions along with some commentary and share them with you. Please take these with a grain of salt as many of them are wrong as often as they are right. This is purely educational and not meant to be portrayed as a “market call”.
Every year, the top strategists from Wall Street’s biggest banks make their predictions for the S&P 500. We like to compile these predictions along with some commentary and share them with you. Please take these with a grain of salt as many of them are wrong as often as they are right. This is purely educational and not meant to be portrayed as a “market call”.
David Kostin, Goldman Sachs – 4700
Goldman leads a growing consensus on Wall Street that stocks will build on their 2023 rally but fail to crack the elusive highs reached just before interest rates skyrocketed.
Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley-4,500
“The question for investors at this stage is whether the leaders can drag the laggards up to their level of performance or if the laggards will eventually overwhelm the leaders’ ability to keep delivering in this challenging macro environment,” Morgan Stanley said.
Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank-5100
“Despite above-trend growth, core inflation has fallen,” the strategists wrote in a note. “Continued declines would return inflation to its pre-pandemic range without requiring slower growth.” Moreover, given that any recession “is widely anticipated and expected to be mild and short, we see only a modest short-lived selloff.”
Brian Belski, BMO-5100
“We believe 2024 will be Year 2 of at least a 3-5 year process that will see US stocks exhibit more normal and typical performance, paced by a backdrop of normal and typical GDP and earnings growth, valuation, and bond yield ranges,” BMO chief investment strategist Brian Belski wrote.
Savita Subramanian, Bank of America-5000
The strategists reportedly explained that U.S. companies have adapted to the higher interest rates imposed by the Federal Reserve and applauded the work of the central bank, which started embarking on an aggressive rate-hiking campaign last year to tame inflation.
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, JP Morgan-4200
“We expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year with softening consumer trends at a time when investor positioning and sentiment have mostly reversed,”
RBC-5000
“Implicit in [our valuation] model is the idea that continued moderation in inflation can do most of the heavy lifting to prop up the P/E multiple, something our analysis suggests happened back in the 1970’s,” they wrote. ”
Here is a look at last year’s predictions from the same firms and how far off they were in % terms:
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